Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & Productivity (Q4) March’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing added to recent survey evidence suggesting that the sector’s recovery is picking up pace. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The small rise in today’s Tankan index for all industries suggests that economic activity remained sluggish last quarter. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) The latest data on euro-zone inflation and unemployment did not lift the threat of a prolonged period of deflation in the currency union. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s EC business and consumer sentiment indicators supported the evidence from other surveys that euro-zone economic activity picked up slightly in the first quarter. But growth still looks likely... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers look ready to start spending Buoyed by falling unemployment, rising equity prices and a boost to their spending power from a lower oil price, euro-zone consumers have become increasingly confident, with the EC’s measure of... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the labour market remains tight, inflation is moving further away from the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. We continue to expect the Bank to step up the pace of easing at the end of next month. 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Outlook for China has actually brightened The recent news on China's economy has been generally downbeat. But less attention has been paid to some encouraging structural shifts which mean that the risks of a slump in growth have diminished... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency sell-off puts paid to further policy loosening Currencies in Latin America have regained some ground over the past week, but have still typically fallen by between 10-20% against the dollar over the past six months. The risk that the slide in... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in productivity growth could be pivotal Fed officials haven't had a lot to say about the slump in productivity growth but, just as the upsurge in productivity growth in the 1990s was crucial in allowing the Fed to leave rates lower for... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shaping up well at the start of 2015 Despite concerns about deflation, a recession in Russia and sluggishness in the euro-zone, the latest data out of Central Europe have been surprisingly robust. Industrial production growth has... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The surge in small business confidence in March is likely to prove short lived, as firms predict a renewed weakening in April. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The second straight drop in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the recent strength in industrial activity is unlikely to last. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2% The early results from this year’s spring wage negotiations confirm that the tight labour market has boosted wage pressure. However, this year’s overall increase in labour income will likely still... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
