UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Feb.) The labour market has regained considerable momentum following the slowdown in the second half of last year. Accordingly, the demand for commercial property space, and thus rental value growth, is... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Mar.) Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New government will struggle to revive Finland’s economy The opposition Centre Party looks likely to be the largest party in a coalition government after Finland’s general election on 19th April. But the outcome of the election is unlikely to have a major... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment rose by 28,700 in March, more than anyone expected, though not by enough to reduce the jobless rate from 6.8%. The details, however, were less impressive. Even so, the odds of a rate cut by... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we trust the upbeat business surveys? The last few weeks have seen mixed messages on the health of the economic recovery, with the upbeat tone of the business surveys contrasting with initial official estimates of output in the first two... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australian households rescue the economy? The apparent acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter will boost hopes that, despite the end of the mining boom, the Australian economy will avoid a sharp slowdown. Unfortunately, the... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Most of Emerging Asia set for faster growth Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to record decent growth over the next couple of years. However, with the pace of expansion in the region’s biggest economy, China, set to ease further in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth to recover after weak Q1 For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation is dead, but should rise again before long For a country that has spent most of its recent history enduring high inflation, the recent release of figures showing that CPI inflation in the UK has now fallen to zero was a watershed moment. What... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump will drag economy down The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, while some firms are benefitting from a weaker Canadian dollar, the slump in crude oil prices is having a greater negative impact on the... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Revised data show that wage growth remains anaemic Revised data show that the base pay hikes agreed upon in last year’s spring wage negotiations were not reflected in aggregate base pay, providing another headwind to higher inflation. 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Unexpected weakness a temporary blip The well below consensus 126,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, particularly when combined with the 69,000 downward revision to earlier gains, will raise fears that the labour market is... 4th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recession spreading unevenly across the economy The slump in Russia’s economy has been spreading unevenly across various sectors with consumers bearing the brunt of the economy’s problems. By contrast, the hit to the manufacturing sector has so far... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
