US Economics Update Labour demand easing, wage growth more resilient The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2024) 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 24) China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the... 30th April 2024 · 0 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025 We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to... 30th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Focus Why is productivity so weak outside the US? Productivity growth in most advanced economies has been much weaker than that in the US since the pandemic. This partly reflects the relative weakness of demand, coupled with a degree of labour... 29th April 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Bumpy ride back to target Progress in getting back to central bank targets has slowed in several major economies. In advanced economies, a rebound in energy inflation has offset most of the drag on headline rates from lower... 26th April 2024 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s confidence in sustained 2% inflation growing With pay hikes becoming increasingly widespread, the Bank of Japan is becoming more confident that it can meet its inflation target on a sustained basis. But with underlying inflation now clearly... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more likely to hike than not The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow The fading of weather-related support and broader evidence of easing labour demand lead us to expect a smaller 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April. We expect the unemployment rate to be... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to rebound in activity in most DMs in Q2 The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth picked up in most advanced economies at the start of Q2. But stronger services activity risks keeping price pressures elevated in some DMs. 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
