India Economics Update Reality check for reform agenda Recent failures to amend the domestic tax system and land acquisition laws are the latest examples of the government's reform agenda running into roadblocks over the past few months. This supports our... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from approaching “strike season” There is a renewed risk of strike action at South Africa’s platinum mines as companies are forced to restructure, leading to job cuts. We believe that the platinum market is already quite tight after... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Mar./Apr.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The increase in the headline index of today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) masks a deterioration in some of the subindices, and we still think that economic activity will remain sluggish in the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) Although employment declined by a larger than expected 19,700 in April, the details showing strong full-time gains was reassuring, as was the fact that the unemployment rate remained at 6.8%... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US Employment Report (Apr.) The monthly US employment report can often trigger large movements in global commodity prices. April’s data, released today, have so far been an exception. Nonetheless, the numbers support our view... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) Although non-farm payrolls increased by a relatively healthy 223,000 and the unemployment rate edged down to a seven-year low of 5.4%, April's employment report was otherwise something of a mixed bag... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will tighter Fed policy rattle the markets? We forecast that US Treasury yields will increase further as the FOMC raises the federal funds rate more rapidly than policymakers, investors and the consensus of economists envisage. By contrast, we... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Apr.) The 2,900 drop in Australian employment in April brought to an end a strong run for the country's labour market and pushed up the unemployment rate. Although we would be wary of reading too much into... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are high construction costs holding back housebuilding? The latest dip in housing starts has been accompanied by a sharp rise in construction costs. But it is shortages of labour and materials, rather than an increase in their costs, which seems to be... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gains from migration haven’t been exhausted Migration into China’s cities appears to be slowing but the economic gains it has brought are far from drying up. Improvements to agricultural productivity should free up rural labour for years to... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending, Consumer Prices & Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) While the labour market continues to tighten, inflation remains near zero and wages are barely rising. The BoJ will have to step up the pace of easing before long. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
