UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay growth back to pre-crisis rates Alongside strong employment growth and virtually zero inflation, households are now enjoying a significant recovery in wage growth. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) The latest labour market figures contained further signs of a pick-up in nominal wage growth. If this continues without any recovery in productivity, then a rate rise could come back on the table this... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Consumers stifled by banking sector and labour market woes Indian consumers have struggled in recent months despite the tailwinds of lower inflation and reductions in interest rates. This can be explained in part by continued problems in the labour market and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLTs surveys show labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys illustrate that the bigger than expected gain in employment in May was no fluke. Labour market conditions are strengthening and wage growth will accelerate further. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The small drop in consumer confidence last month masks a rebound in households’ income expectations, which suggests that they may increasingly be willing to spend some of the windfall from lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fact that the economy generated a surprisingly strong 58,900 jobs in May suggests that it is holding up against the oil price shock better than we had expected. This supports the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Back from the dead? The news last week that first-quarter productivity slumped while unit labour costs soared should be viewed with some scepticism, since the non-farm business sector figures are distorted by the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, which was well above the 225,000 consensus forecast but bang in line with our own call, adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Labour market reform: can Mr Modi learn lessons from the states? Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s first year in power, but there are signs of improvement at state level, most notably... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Rise in oil prices has eased risk of deflation The rebound in global oil prices since January means it is all but certain that headline inflation in advanced economies will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. For most countries, this has... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian households will be slow to feel recovery Italy’s economy looks set to grow again in Q2. But households there will remain under enormous pressure for the foreseeable future, which has implications for the strength of the recovery and support... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Flagging economy will prompt more rate cuts The futures market indicates that most investors are now convinced by the Bank of Canada's view that the January interest rate cut will be enough to prevent the economy from being derailed by the... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Outlook for periphery’s exporters is improving The depreciation of the euro over the past year or so appears to be finally starting to help euro-zone exporters. The latest data show that annual growth in euro-zone export values picked up to 7.3%... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
