Latin America Chart Pack China still the key risk for Lat Am While many parts of the emerging and developed world are sweating over the potential fallout from a looming Greek exit from the Euro-zone, a deeper downturn in China remains the key external risk for... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to within touching distance of the eight-year high seen earlier this year suggests that the surge in real consumption in May... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The renewed decline in euro-zone HICP inflation in June highlighted that the ECB still has a lot of work to do to hit its inflation target in the medium term. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (May) Even though the labour market continues to tighten, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation measure fell towards zero last month. Sluggish consumer spending suggests that price pressures are unlikely... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Model points to another big gain in payrolls Our econometric model points to a 290,000 gainin non-farm payrolls in May and, as a result, wealso expect the unemployment rate to edge downto 5.4%. 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tackling unemployment requires structural reform South Africa’s official unemployment rate hit a ten year high of 26.4% in Q1 2015, hammering home the scale of the country’s jobs challenge. Indeed unemployment in the country is more widespread than... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment outlook points to faster rate hikes in US than UK Having declined in lock-step with one another over the past three and a half years, we think the unemployment rate is likely fall more rapidly in the US than in the UK between now and the end of 2017... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much further can unemployment fall? At 5.5%, the unemployment rate is getting close to past estimates of its ‘natural rate’, i.e. the rate at which further falls become incompatible with the inflation target. Indeed, the stronger labour... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rates to rise more rapidly than Fed's projections imply Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
