Europe Economics Focus Why hasn’t the German recovery taken off? Hopes that Germany would drive a strong euro-zone recovery have faded as subdued demand for its exports has offset the boost from a weaker euro. This trend is set to continue. And as the consumer... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack More deflation on the way The UK is heading for a renewed period of deflation. The fall back in oil prices to below $50 per barrel will bear down on petrol prices soon. In addition, sterling has continued to appreciate and on... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Labour market recovery stalls While the euro-zone economy has continued to weather the ongoing Greek crisis reasonably well, one potentially worrying recent development is the apparent slowdown in the labour market recovery. Not... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recovery and reforms show no signs of boosting jobs The Italian economy’s tentative return to growth and recent structural reforms are unlikely to feed into a meaningful labour market recovery for some time yet. So frustrations with Mr Renzi’s... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Labour cash earnings fell the most since the 2009 recession during the first month of the summer bonus season, highlighting that the tight labour market has not created stronger wage pressures. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium resolving its structural problems? Belgium has started to reform its labour market and improve its competitiveness. But this will take time to bear fruit, and further work will be needed. Accordingly, over the next few years we expect... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil slashes its fiscal goals The substantial cuts to Brazil’s primary surplus targets announced this month underline the inherent difficulty of fixing budget problems against the backdrop of a weakening economy. As it happens... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) Euro-zone inflation was well below target in July and renewed rises in unemployment suggest that disinflationary forces remain strong. 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Jun.) Today's data provide some tentative signs that underlying price pressure has started to strengthen again. But with consumer spending falling to the lowest level since last year’s sales tax hike, we... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The sharp fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July, to 90.9 from 99.8 in June (revised down from 101.4), points to an easing in consumption growth in the second half of the... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions set to deteriorate While the steady job gains from the household employment survey are often highlighted as a sign that the oil-induced recession in the first half of the year was an unusually mild one, closer... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
