Canada Economics Weekly Soft landing, at least in aggregate The return to growth in the fourth quarter means it is probably safe to say that the economy has avoided recession, but that is mainly due to rapid immigration. Per capita GDP fell for the fifth... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth to slow despite strong payrolls We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Survey data point to resilience in economic activity Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ has succeeded in creating high-pressure economy The Bank of Japan has succeeded in creating tight labour market conditions through ultra-loose monetary policy and is now reaping the benefits in the form of stronger wage growth. The upshot is that... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2023) The pickup in wage growth in Q4 was driven by larger pay packets for public-sector employees. By contrast, private-sector wage growth actually fell back and should continue to do so in the coming... 21st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening plans While Japan's GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter, other data overwhelmingly point to the economy holding up rather than falling into recession. And while the third consecutive fall in... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 15th February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2024) 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read