UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumer spending to remain sluggish With poorly paid non-regular jobs accounting for the bulk of new job creation and the tight labour market not providing the hoped-for boost to wages, we think that the near-term outlook for consumer... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: “Good” deflation about to return We expect deflation to have returned in August; indeed, inflation is likely to remain below zero for most of the rest of this year. But it is not something to worry about as its main effect will be to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Aug.) Another healthy gain in employment in August, as well as a slight fall in the unemployment rate, continued the strong run of Australia’s labour market. The slowdown in GDP growth this year may still... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Aug.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that the economy is still struggling to recover from Q2’s slump. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) August's employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report is fairly mixed and can be used to make a case for or against a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. As far as we’re concerned, the September meeting is a 50-50 toss up... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The rebound in bonus payments in July was far too modest to prevent a drop in this year’s summer bonuses. With the tight labour market failing to create strong wage gains, the Bank of Japan still has... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
