Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery’s wheels not falling off, despite Q3 slowdown The latest business surveys made for dismal reading. Indeed, the average level of the economy-wide Markit/CIPS composite PMI over Q3 as a whole points to quarterly growth in GDP of just 0.5%... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy back in recession Japan’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter in Q3. With the economic recovery grinding to a halt, the chances of hitting the Bank’s 2%inflation by next summer are dwindling rapidly... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market fundamentals remain solid The slowdown in employment growth in August and September will probably delay the first interest rate hike until early 2016, but it doesn’t appear to be the start of a sustained deterioration in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the summer bonus season came to an end, underlining that the tight labour market has yet to generate noticeable cost pressures. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay rate hike until early 2016 The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Few winners from weak US payrolls The disappointing US jobs report for September will clearly do little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While it’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, we’ll make an exception in this case. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down. Payroll employment... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How did the euro-zone economy perform in Q3? The hard data available so far for Q3, as well as the more timely activity surveys, suggest that the economy performed fairly well last quarter. GDP growth probably maintained its pace from Q2 and may... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
