US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Times a-changin’ in Argentina? The surprise outcome of the presidential election in Argentina has raised the prospect of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking, following 12 years of populism under successive Kirchner... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth in Taiwan to recover after weak third quarter Figures due to be released over the coming week are likely to show that growth in Taiwan slowed sharply last quarter. However, with prospects for exports improving and domestic demand likely to remain... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack “Good” deflation returns The latest consumer prices figures showed that CPI inflation turned negative again in September. Although the current period of negative inflation should prove to be short lived and shallow, inflation... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Immigration won’t transform Germany’s growth outlook The influx of refugees into Germany has caused much speculation about the costs to the government and possible benefits to the economy. But while the trend presents opportunities for the long term, it... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s labour recovery won’t stop Riksbank cutting The improvement in Sweden’s labour market in recent months has exceeded consensus expectations and those of the Riksbank. But conditions are still far from healthy and wage growth remains subdued... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (August) Jobs numbers continue to point to healthy occupier demand conditions. And although the pace of job creation in London has cooled, demand fundamentals in the regions still looks solid. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the jobs recovery is back on track after the dip in employment in the spring. Meanwhile, the easing in pay growth has further reduced the case for a... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
