Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Alternative employment survey reveals slowdown The fallout from the oil price shock has triggered a significant slowdown in hiring according to the large payroll employment survey, despite evidence to the contrary from the more popular household... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey shows labour market remains robust The rebound in the job openings rate to 3.7% in September, from 3.6%, illustrates that labour market conditions remain robust. September was also only the second month on record that the job openings... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The strength of Australia’s labour market in October builds on other evidence that suggests the economy has made some big leaps forward in recent months. It diminishes the chances of further rate cuts... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (September) Today’s jobs numbers were slightly higher than we had expected implying that occupier market conditions are still healthy. Indeed, today’s jobs numbers are broadly consistent with our rental growth... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Sep./Oct.) Labour market activity is still looking quite healthy. But the slowdown in wage growth in the latest figures confirmed that an interest rate rise is still some way off. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growing labour market slack to restrain core inflation Recent headline employment gains mask a deterioration in underlying labour market conditions. If, as we fear, the economy continues to struggle in response to the worsening oil price slump, then... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets look set to take first Fed rate hike in their stride The relatively calm reactions to Friday’s strong US employment report support our view that the gradual return of US interest rates towards more normal levels is unlikely to be the seismic shock that... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy’s labour market recovery continue? Italy’s labour market has shown some strong signs of improvement since the summer, but we suspect that this is unlikely to last. Reduced tax incentives for hiring, as well as sluggish economic growth... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth edged up in September but still falls short of trend productivity growth. The upshot is that the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost pressures. 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Even the bulls are nervous about housing now Investors who have paid attention to indicators of growing imbalances in Canada’s hot housing market over the years won’t be surprised by recent warnings of potential housing corrections from certain... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
