Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will minimum wage hikes boost consumption? Prime Minister Abe has expressed his desire to lift the minimum wage by 3% per year to boost earnings and consumer spending. However, we estimate that aggregate labour income would rise by less than 0... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s new favourite price gauge last month recorded the first drop since February. With sizeable amounts of slack dampening price pressures, this slowdown should continue in coming... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still putting faith in export-led recovery We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its key interest rate 0.50% next week and remain neutral on the direction of its next potential move. While highlighting the further slide in oil prices as a... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Following the uptick in yesterday’s flash manufacturing PMI, the renewed rise in small business confidence in November adds to the evidence that activity will rebound this quarter. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack rapidly shrinking Our econometric model points to a solid 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in November, although we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%. Base effects mean that even if... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a fresh high in November and suggests that Japan’s economy returned to growth this quarter. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The Myth of the “African Middle Class” Oft-repeated claims that an African “middle class” will propel economic growth in the region confuse cause and effect. Most estimates of the size of the region’s middle class rely on poorly drawn... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to rise more gradually in the UK than US The release of the UK and US inflation figures last week provided a reminder of why the MPC is likely to raise interest rates later than the US Fed. Inflation rates in both economies will pick up... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
