Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why is euro-zone productivity falling? Productivity in the euro-zone has been falling for well over a year. We think this is largely because it was unsustainably high in mid-2022 as many companies struggled to fill vacancies. Since then... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2024) The easing in wage growth in January is probably still a bit too slow for the Bank of England’s liking. But there are encouraging signs that a more marked slowdown is just around the corner, which... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage data point to June cut; worrying demographics Christine Lagarde’s comments following the ECB meeting and the Q4 wage data released this week support our view that the ECB will start cutting rates in June. Meanwhile, news that EU births fell to a... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2024) The Bank of Canada will be relieved to see renewed labour market slack putting downward pressure on wage growth. While the Bank will need to see wage growth soften further before it pivots to rate... 8th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2024) The 275,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February may, at face value, add weight to the Fed’s view that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates, but the downward revisions to previous months’... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto bonanza opens door to March rate hike Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. Meanwhile, with childbirths hitting a... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to continued easing in wage growth The January JOLTS release showed no evidence of a resurgence in labour demand. With forward looking indicators still pointing to a sharp easing in wage growth, there is little to suggest that the... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at... 6th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise again before long A fall in the participation rate has kept a lid on unemployment in recent months but, given rapid population growth, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5% later this year. 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
