Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts

This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Lower education costs could boost fertility rate

While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24)

May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate.

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (May 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

US Employment Report Preview

Labour market gradually cooling

We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%.

30th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Further thoughts on the latest wage data

The wage growth data published this week were not good for the inflation outlook, but they weren’t as bad as they first appeared. Meanwhile, the latest news on economic activity has been encouraging...

24th May 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Update

Migration is preventing the supply of labour from shrinking

Putting the politics aside, the high number of migrants coming to the UK for work is the main reason why the number of people willing and able to work isn’t shrinking.

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Healthcare hiring & spending spree has further to run

The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment...

23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB

We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (May 2024)

The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we...

21st May 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Weekly

Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years?

Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three...

17th May 2024 · 9 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening

On the Bank of Japan's favoured measure, spare capacity has remained tight across the economy despite the recent weakness of GDP - which this week's data confirmed extended into Q1. That's another...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government leaves RBA to go it alone

Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read