Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the Bank of Japan do next? The Bank of Japan unveiled a negative interest rate policy two weeks ago because it concluded that more forceful action was needed to lift inflation. Now, with equities slumping and the yen soaring to... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Zika virus unlikely to have major economic impact The Zika virus has hit the headlines in recent weeks due to its rapid spread across Latin America and the suspected link with thousands of cases of serious birth defects in Brazil. But, while it is... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Spending boost from net migration not departing just yet The record level of net migration appears to explain around half of the rise in real consumption in New Zealand in the past two years. If net migration slows steadily as is widely expected, then this... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lies, damned lies and labour market statistics? At least some of the startling fall in the unemployment rate in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of last year, from 6.0% to 5.3%, appears genuine. As such, we no longer think that the unemployment... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The weaker than expected 5,700 decline in employment in January, was a poor start to the year and provides more evidence that the economy is struggling to cope with the collapse in oil prices. The... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
