UK Economics Focus How much of an inflationary threat is the labour market? The labour market has been rapidly tightening, but there are reasons to think that this won’t feed into a surge in wage growth soon. Indeed, we think there is at least some slack left in the labour... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence picked up in February, firms project a deterioration in March allowing for seasonal factors. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of confidence to an eight-month low of 92.2 in February, from 97.8 suggests that the financial market turmoil earlier in the month is beginning to weigh... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Equities won’t drag the economy down The slump in equity prices since the turn of the year is unlikely to be followed by a similar slump in economic growth in Australia, especially now that equity prices are rebounding. Over the past 20... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low in February and suggests that business sentiment has suffered from the sharp falls in the equity market and the stronger yen. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan.) The further fall in employment in January is probably just a continuation of the data moving back to reality after the unbelievable strength late last year rather than a sign that the concerns over... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China turn itself around? The inept response by China’s policymakers to the pressures of the last few months has rightly diminished confidence in their ability to handle the structural transition China faces in the years ahead... 17th February 2016 · 14 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The soft UK pay growth shown in today’s labour market figures – which is still at odds with the tightening labour market – highlights why the MPC won’t be raising rates anytime soon 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Dec) Healthy job creation continues to bode well for occupier demand conditions. Moreover, with job vacancies high, it is likely that we will see further gains in employment this year, making a sharp... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
