US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jan./Feb.) With the Chancellor setting the backdrop to this afternoon’s Budget as one where the global “storm clouds” are gathering, today’s labour market figures offer a ray of sunshine. However, wage growth is... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan) With the unemployment rate already low, it is perhaps unsurprising that the pace of job creation slowed in January. However, the picture is still supportive for occupier demand as high job vacancies... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Feeling the squeeze 2016 is shaping up to be a better year for investors in Latin America than 2015. With global commodity prices now at a bottom and set to edge up this year, we expect most equity markets in the region... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) The February retail sales report was disappointing (taking account also of downward revisions to January data) and means that the risks to our forecast for first quarter-GDP growth of 2.5% annualised... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s political crisis takes dramatic turn Brazil’s financial markets rallied after news broke last week that former President Lula had been detained (and later released) in relation to the ongoing corruption probe at Petrobras. But this... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) With employment rising at a rapid pace and labour market slack still shrinking, we think the Fed will resume raising interest rates in June. A marked pick-up in wage growth is still notably absent... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) While wage growth rebounded in January, it remains low by past standards. With the upcoming spring wage negotiations set to result in smaller pay hikes than last year, the labour market will not... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Jan.) While the labour market continues to tighten, consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the new year. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of employment gains will inevitably slow Our econometric model points to a more muted 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%, with the growth rate of average hourly... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
