US Economics Update Will the participation rate continue to rebound? The recent surge in labour force participation has been concentrated among low-skilled workers, which may be artificially depressing average hourly earnings. But with this trend unlikely to last and... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No rebound yet Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up at the start of 2016, but did not rebound as we had hoped. Nonetheless, we still think that a looser policy stance means the data is more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Household Spending & Retail Sales (Feb.) While the labour market remains tight, consumer spending may only have rebounded marginally this quarter. 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour market reform will restrict France’s recovery Although the French economy appeared to make a decent start to the year, surveys published this week supported our view that the recovery’s underlying momentum will remain very weak. And the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview Our econometric model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.4% m/m gain in average... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Making a good start to the year Data released over the past month have provided further evidence that regional growth strengthened at the start to the year. Admittedly, the region’s largest economy, Russia, remains in recession. But... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering a prolonged period of weak growth The storm created by low oil prices will finally make its presence felt in the Gulf this year and we expect this to be the start of an extended period of slow growth. A wave of devaluations is highly... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Refugee crisis is another threat to Greek bailout Greece and its creditors have reached some compromises that might allow the first bailout review to be concluded next month and negotiations over debt relief to begin. But the growing financial and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing market running out of puff More worrying than the 0.5% q/q seasonally adjusted fall in the ABS measure of Australian house prices in the fourth quarter of last year (+0.2% q/q unadjusted) is that the subsequent rebound is... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Soft patch in consumption only temporary Last week’s weaker than expected data on retail sales and the drop in utilities production in February suggest that real consumption growth has started the year on a softer footing than initially... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House prices set to rise by 6% in 2016 There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak start to spring wage negotiations The early results of the Shunto spring wage negotiations have been disappointing to policymakers hoping to see faster wage gains. The major carmakers and electronics firms have agreed smaller base pay... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack “Basically stable” renminbi slides lower Three months after the People’s Bank hinted that it would in future manage the renminbi relative to a currency basket rather than the dollar the jury is still out on what this means in practice... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The recent stagnation in employment is probably just payback from the unjustified strength late last year rather than a sign that fears over the global economy have prompted businesses to postpone... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
