Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price inflation to converge on earnings growth House price inflation has strengthened a little since our previous Analyst. But the economy has lost a little momentum and forward-looking demand indicators, such as buyer enquiries, are easing... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) Today’s UK labour market data added to recent signs that the economy slowed at the start of 2016. Accordingly, interest rates look set to be on hold for a while yet. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The 26,100 rebound in employment in March is something of a relief given the stagnation in the previous three months. With the unemployment rate falling from 5.8% to 5.7%, the labour market appears in... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) While wage growth rebounded in February, the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely result in smaller base pay hikes than last year. The upshot is that the outlook for labour income remains... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment suggests that the labour market remains in reasonable health, but it is still too weak to generate any real inflationary pressure. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 215,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in March highlights once again that, even though GDP growth has been underwhelming over the past six months, the labour market remains unusually strong. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural factors holding back wage growth Low inflation and the continued expansion in part-time employment are one reason why wage growth is not picking up. However, there are also some structural factors at play. Japan’s lifetime employment... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
