UK Economics Weekly Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period It has been two months since the UK voted to leave the EU and you could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on the economy. After all, different sets of figures released have given... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) July’s labour market figures were much better than expected and forward looking indicators suggest the labour market should continue to remain healthy. However, given that part-time positions... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) Employment growth was strong in the three months before the referendum. Even so, there are good reasons why rental value growth is likely to slow further in the second half of the year. 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2) The delayed release of the second quarter labour market figures showed a surprise surge in employment growth. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, but we expect it to edge down only slowly this... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul. 16) Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex The latest data suggest that while firms are reluctant to increase capital expenditure, they are nonetheless continuing to expand their workforces. With the unemployment rate below 5%, however, the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
