Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending & Unemployment (Apr.) Today’s figures on industrial production and household spending suggest that Japan's economy continued to expand at a solid pace in the second quarter. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard Our econometric model points to a solid 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, but after we allow for the impact of the Verizon strike and other temporary factors, the actual gain in employment was... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Since the labour market remained healthy enough in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t need to hit the panic button and cut interest rates again at the next meeting in June. We still think... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Although there were some bright spots in today’s labour market figures , on the whole they offered a further indication that the economic slowdown has sapped the jobs recovery of its recent vigour. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French strikes darken the economic outlook This week’s French protests over a watered down labour market law highlight just how hard it will be to reform the economy. This suggests that France’s economic weakness will be prolonged... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big a deal is immigration from the EU? This morning’s ONS release, showing there has been a large recent rise in short-term EU immigration, will probably lead to exaggerated claims about the UK needing to regain control of its borders... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon? Employment growth in advanced economies has so far remained fairly resilient in the face of weaker global growth and we think labour markets will continue to tighten gradually in the coming months... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal no labour market deterioration The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, contrary to the already reported slowdown in the pace of monthly payroll gains in April, labour market slack is still shrinking. That should eventually... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) Wage growth rose sharply in March, but only because of strong bonus payments. Growth in base pay weakened, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations suggest that the tight labour market is not about to... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
