China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to remain high in 2024 Data released today showed that Spanish inflation picked up from 2.9% in February to 3.2% in March. We think it is likely to increase further over the coming months due to base effects in energy... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall back, we suspect the unemployment rate will rise anew in the months ahead. 21st March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB rate cuts will do little to boost growth The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be... 15th March 2024 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Weak productivity may keep domestic inflation sticky If the UK's recent dismal productivity performance continues, the Bank of England may need to wait for wage growth to fall further before it feels comfortable cutting interest rates. With the latest... 15th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto tide should lift wage growth among small firms This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hikes since 1991 and we estimate that participating workers will receive a base pay hike of around 3.5%. While it’s mostly the large... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Are weight loss drugs a game-changer? There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this... 13th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
