Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will remain close to recession in the near term. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB is very... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar. 2024) The jump in the unemployment rate in March, together with evidence of easing wage pressures, raises the chance of the Bank of Canada surprising markets with a rate cut next week, although our base... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Mar.) The blockbuster 303,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March supports the Fed’s position that the resilience of the economy means it can take its time with rate cuts, which might now not begin until... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda signals low bar for further rate hikes Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today indicated that it wouldn't take much for the Bank to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. The extreme labour shortages coupled with persistent... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation pressure from labour market continues to fade The February JOLTS data suggest that labour market conditions are now easing at a more gradual pace, but that isn’t a surprise when most indicators of slack have already returned to pre-pandemic norms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Governments can accelerate green jobs shift While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter. 29th March 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand still gradually easing We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government readies for FX intervention With the yen weakening to a fresh 34-year low against the dollar, the Ministry of Finance signaled that an intervention in the foreign exchange markets is imminent. However, the yen will certainly not... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
