Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in December in almost a year and supports our view that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace this quarter. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) The number of people in work fell slightly in October, suggesting that some of the labour market’s recent resilience may now be fading. But we doubt the weakness will escalate to an extent that puts... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) There are some tentative signs that the jobs market has lost some of its earlier strength. But we don’t expect any weakening to be particularly severe. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from the upcoming Shunto? We expect the upcoming spring wage negotiations to result in base pay hikes of only 0.5% or so, which would be broadly in line with the increase agreed upon this year. Even with output per employee... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey showed that current conditions are the most buoyant since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the survey still points to a slowdown in job growth in coming months. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead The Nordic and Swiss economies generally recorded positive growth in Q3 and look set to do so again in Q4. But with growth in their main trading partner, the euro-zone, set to slow and a number of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth picked up marginally in October but remained very weak. While wages are rising more strongly allowing for falling working hours, the tight labour market has yet to create noticeable cost... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
