Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The inflation worm has turned The recent rises in underlying inflation suggest that the period of extremely low inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has come to an end. Underlying inflation, which excludes the temporary... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Mar.) Despite sharp falls in “core” household spending and industrial production in March, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% in Q1. However, there is still no evidence that the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls get back on track We estimate that non-farm payroll employment recovered from last month’s weather-related blip with a robust 185,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate probably ticked back up to 4.6%, but this... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) While the decline in small business confidence in April can largely be attributed to seasonal patterns, the survey remains consistent with a stagnation in industrial output. What’s more, there are no... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the surge in employment a sign of things to come? We doubt that the surge in Australian employment in March will mark the beginning of a sustained rebound in employment growth. Indeed, a deeper dive into the latest employment trends in different... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The huge leap in employment in March looks suspicious to us and we think the stagnation in the unemployment rate at a 14-month high of 5.9% is a better signal of the state of the labour market. That... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Feb.) Today’s Labour Force survey gave no worrying signs about the strength of occupier demand, either nationally or in the capital, despite a slowdown in job creation. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) While underlying wage growth is still struggling to keep pace with inflation, the continued strength of employment growth is one reason to think that any slowdown in spending growth won’t be too sharp... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price expectations too weak to reach 2% inflation The labour market continues to tighten and firms are reporting the most severe capacity shortages in years. Underlying inflation is therefore set to recover after approaching zero at the start of this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, despite the slowdown in payroll employment growth last month, labour market slack continues to diminish. They also provide further evidence that this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey jars with the upbeat message from other sentiment surveys. The survey also points to a further slowdown in job growth in coming months. 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
