Japan Economics Weekly Low labour mobility limiting wage gains The national accounts data show that wage growth has slowed in recent quarters even as the labour market has continued to tighten. With the lifetime employment model preventing employees from... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Household spending rebounded sharply in January as the labour market continued to tighten. However, price pressures remain subdued as the boost from higher energy prices is dampened by weak service... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview January strength was no fluke The strength of the survey evidence suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by an even stronger 240,000 in February, which should have been enough to bring the unemployment rate back down... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Deeper capacity cuts needed to avert protracted slowdown We estimate that sectors responsible for two-thirds of China’s industrial output now suffer from overcapacity. Despite this, policymakers continue to drag their feet on reform due to fears that deep... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence weakened slightly in February, the survey has not been a good to activity lately. We would highlight that firms continue to report pronounced staff shortages while... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Net migration from the EU falls after Brexit vote There have been growing signs that some EU nationals are reacting to the vote to leave the EU by either returning to their country of citizenship or by obtaining residency rights in the UK. Meanwhile... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation gives Fed less wiggle room The rise in CPI inflation to a five-year high of 2.5% in January was principally due to a surge in gasoline prices, which appears to have been partly reversed in February. Nevertheless, with headline... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s sharp decline in Norway’s unemployment rate was not as encouraging as it first appears. And while surveys suggest that employment growth will pick up, we suspect that wage growth will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI in February was the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and suggests that activity in the sector continued to expand at a strong pace this quarter. What’s more, the... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Immigration easing labour shortages Immigration to Japan is starting to make a meaningful difference in its labour market: the number of foreign workers rose by nearly 20% last year. With Japanese people more accepting of immigration... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
