Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) Despite July’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production, growth in the sector will probably slow in Q3. But with more timely survey indicators still strong, any slowdown should be modest. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last While the recovery in business investment looks set to continue, the latest surveys suggest that firms will soon have to increase the pay they are offering if they want to hire additional workers. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger 22,200 gain in employment in August is an encouraging sign for continued income and consumption growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the further drop in the unemployment rate to 6.2%... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Full-time staff shortages point to faster wage growth Part-time wages have been rising at a reasonable rate for a while but, with evidence now building the firms are finding it harder to hire sufficient full-time workers, a pick-up in broader wage growth... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The fall in labour cash earnings in July was entirely due to a slump in bonus payments, whereas regular pay is holding up. Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2%... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What do immigration changes mean for the economy? The announcement by the White House that it will phase out the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, which provides temporary work permits for 800,000 children of illegal... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report was disappointing across the board but given the potential seasonal problems – with weak initial readings in August subsequently revised higher in previous years – it isn’t... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug. 17) While consumer confidence declined in August, it remains high by past standards. Households are upbeat about labour market prospects and their personal finances, which should support consumer spending... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data broadly support the case for the ECB to taper its asset purchases next year, but the Bank seems unlikely to announce its plan until its October... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up well despite real pay squeeze There have been some tentative signs that the tight labour market is translating into stronger pay gains. Even so, earnings growth needs to gather more pace in order to match the rise in CPI inflation... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into July’s slowdown in household spending as the data tend to understate private consumption. Meanwhile, strong job growth is lifting household incomes and providing a... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Efforts to reform labour market fall short Japan’s government is worried that a sharp increase in the number of part-time workers will feed into weaker growth in productivity in future and it has proposed a package of labour reforms in... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects We forecast a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August, and suspect that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the current end-year projection of Fed officials. The surveys suggest it could... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
