Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Household sentiment remained strong at the start of 2018 and suggests that the expansion in consumer spending has further to run. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay demands won’t see inflation surge Recent pay demands by German trade unions may look like a sign that the economy’s strength is causing a surge in inflationary pressure. But the demands are very unlikely to be met in full. We expect a... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Consumer Spending (Dec.) While the jobless rate edged up in December, the continued rise in job vacancies suggest it will fall to fresh lows before long. Meanwhile, consumer spending should have rebounded last quarter even... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Foreign workers continue to ease labour shortages One widely-overlooked factor driving Japan’s growth in recent years has been a surge in the number of foreign workers. This appears to be continuing, as employers face labour shortages and recent... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth set to resume upward trend in 2018 We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to an above-trend 200,000 in January. That may have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new cycle-low of 4.0%, which would provide... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. (Dec.) The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov/Dec.) The latest labour market figures provided further reassurance that the economy held up in the fourth quarter of last year. With survey indicators suggesting that jobs and wage growth should continue... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Nov.) There was nothing in today’s labour market figures to suggest that the steady picture of occupier demand conditions, which has typified the commercial property market over the past few quarters, is... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The strong rise in employment in December rounded off an exceptional year for the labour market. Jobs growth is unlikely to be as strong this year, but the labour market will still make further... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will jobs growth continue to soar in 2018? While the upbeat nature of business employment surveys suggests jobs growth should be fairly decent this year, the exceptionally strong pace of job creation in 2017 seems unlikely to be repeated. 14th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The Economy Watchers Survey remained strong in December despite a small decline. The survey suggests that consumer spending and employment will continue growing at rates comparable to those seen over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
