Japan Economics Weekly Has the unemployment rate reached a floor? The jobless rate has been effectively flat since February despite continued strong growth in the economy. The economy is now close to full employment which suggests that wage growth will continue to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The surge in the Economy Watchers Survey is yet another sign that the drop in consumer spending last quarter was just a blip. The survey suggests that job growth will pick up further and that... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Regular earnings are now growing a touch faster than productivity which suggests that firms may have to start raising prices before long. Nonetheless, there is still a long way to reach the Bank of... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy maintaining its momentum in Q4 The Office for National Statistics confirmed that GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3 and the economy appears to have maintained its recent momentum so far in the fourth quarter. Indeed, November’s Markit/CIPS... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Households are the most upbeat since 2013 which suggests that the drop in consumer spending last quarter was just a blip. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Household Spending, Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Capital Spending (Q3) Today’s household spending data suggest that private consumption remained sluggish this quarter. Meanwhile, there are still few signs that the tight labour market is boosting price pressures. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep pressure on Fed We forecast a 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The latter will concern those Fed officials worried that diminishing... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s rise in headline euro-zone consumer price inflation and the fall in the unemployment rate in October may offer some reassurance to the ECB as it prepares to reduce the pace of its asset... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a “hard border” mean for Ireland? A so-called “hard border” between Ireland and the UK could hit the Irish economy pretty hard. But it would also present some opportunities, for example from UK financial firms relocating to Dublin. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the labour market succumbing to Brexit uncertainty? The strength of the labour market has been a key source of comfort since the Brexit vote. But this week’s labour market figures – which revealed a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
