Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) The Economy Watchers Survey didn’t improve much in March and still points to subdued growth in both industrial production and consumer spending. 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Despite the recent slowdown in economic growth, the labour market churned out a solid 32,300 gain in employment in March, enough to keep the unemployment rate at its ten-year low of 5.8%. Hourly wages... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The modest 103,000 gain in payroll employment in March, which follows a massive 326,000 gain in February, is a good illustration of the inherent volatility in the non-farm payroll data. The March gain... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Feb.) Base pay rose the most in two decades at the start of the year which indicates that the tight labour market is finally starting to create noticeable cost pressures. Meanwhile, the renewed slump in... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war fears mount The growing threat of a US-China trade war is the key risk to the outlook. The tariff measures announced so far don’t amount to much, but any escalation in trade tensions that leads to a significant... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment to its lowest level since late 2008 is good news for the ECB. But with core inflation remained weak in March, so the Bank will continue to stress its patient... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour data point to slower consumption growth The incoming labour market data provide further evidence of a potential household-led slowdown in economic growth this quarter. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada won’t risk increasing... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Blockbuster first quarter for employment We estimate that payroll employment expanded by 250,000 in March, as the disruption from the recent flu epidemic faded. That should push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, an 18-year low. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Might the labour market be looser than it appears? There is a plausible argument that widespread “underemployment” of employees who would like to work longer hours means that labour market conditions in Japan are not as tight as the historically-low... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Record run of job growth won’t be sustained Following a surprisingly strong 2017, the Australian labour market has started 2018 on a firm footing and business surveys suggest that employment growth will continue to climb in the coming months... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
