UK Economics Chart Pack Economy gathered a little momentum in Q4 The latest survey evidence suggests that the economy ended 2017 on a reasonable footing. Indeed, despite a fall-back in both the manufacturing and construction PMI surveys in December, the all-sector... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Solid job gains will drive unemployment rate lower Our econometric model points to a 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, which would be well above the average monthly gain of 174,000 over the first 11 months of last year. Manufacturing... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Unemployment (Nov. & Dec.) The German unemployment rate held at a record low in December, suggesting that wage growth should pick up at least a little in the year ahead. So while the recent pace of employment growth seems... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we think that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households will continue to struggle After slowing sharply in the third quarter, there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks about the prospects for real consumption growth in Australia in the fourth quarter. In particular... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (Dec.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q3) December’s small decline in German Ifo business sentiment from a record high suggests that the outlook for next year is bright despite the uncertain political backdrop and the prospect of ECB QE... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions didn’t improve much further this quarter which suggests that growth is now slowing. Nonetheless, capacity and staff shortages continue to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) Another month of extraordinarily strong jobs growth in November leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market. That said, there is still plenty of spare capacity which will... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in nearly four years in December as external demand continues to improve. However, price pressures are only strengthening slowly. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) While the 56,000 fall in employment in the three months to October was larger than the consensus expectation of a 40,000 drop, employment looks unlikely to continue to fall for much longer. Meanwhile... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) October’s Labour Force Survey showed that employment fell. Yet, the unemployment rate held firm and wage growth improved. In big picture terms, the data are still consistent with rents rising next... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How much further can the labour market tighten? The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its policy meeting next week and, against a backdrop of tightening labour market conditions and gradually rising wage inflation... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly bigger than expected 228,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November all but guarantees another 25bp interest rate hike by the Fed next week, particularly with the unemployment rate... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
