Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) Temporary factors explain some of the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1. We doubt that the economy will regain all of its lost momentum, but surveys suggest that growth will pick back up. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The labour market continued to strengthen in the first quarter, with employment posting another decent rise and the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in almost a decade. And although wage... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What do higher oil prices mean for euro-zone inflation? The upward revision to our 2018 oil price forecast means that the contribution from energy to headline inflation will be a bit bigger than we had previously assumed. But this effect is likely to be... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows to remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2017 – larger than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Though there are some risks... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Tokyo CPI (Apr.) The slump in industrial production last quarter suggests that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, price pressures have started to moderate again even though the labour market remains very tight. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage pressures building We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to 175,000 in April but, more importantly for the Fed, average hourly earnings growth appears to be accelerating. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The fading impact of the opioid crisis The opioid crisis is still costing lives and devastating communities, but its impact on the labour market is at least beginning to fade. The sharp fall in prescription rates last year suggests that... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Public sector wage talks pose fiscal risk Labour relations in South Africa are deteriorating. Public sector wage talks are particularly fraught; a strike could cripple government services, while a big wage hike would sharply widen the budget... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy tightening remains a long way off The unusual strength of wage growth in Japan has attracted attention recently. But the main development at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is likely to be another reduction in the Board’s forecast... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) While the modest increase in employment in March was a notable break from the exceptionally large rises recorded over the past year, we are wary about sounding the alarm just yet given most leading... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Minimum wage shows difficulty of economic reform South African policymakers are being forced to delay the introduction of a long-planned national minimum wage bill. Overall, we think that the bill is probably a positive step for the country. The... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) February’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real wages are now in prospect and should seal the deal on another interest rate hike in May. 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the digital economy raise productivity? Labour productivity growth picked up in 2017 and we suspect that it will rebound a little further over the next couple of years, as rising capacity constraints and the tightening labour market... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
