Japan Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) Even though employment growth slowed a bit in April, it remains unrealistically high. Meanwhile, the jobless rate stayed at 2.5% and it will probably edge a little lower over the coming months. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Unemployment (Mar.) Norway’s labour market recovery looks set to gather pace in the coming months, but wage growth is likely to remain subdued. So we still think that the Norges Bank will wait longer than most expect... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep Fed on track for June rate hike We expect a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9% and wage growth picking up. That would leave the Fed on track to raise rates again in June. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan finally winning? On some measures, Japan has been the strongest performing large developed economy over recent years. Growth has been unusually fast, unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth at two-decade... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Following outright falls in employment in February and March, the pace of job creation returned to a more normal rate in April. But even if this pace is sustained, we expect wage growth to remain... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) March’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real pay are in prospect and will place more pressure on the MPC to hike interest rates soon. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Mar.) Robust job creation, a high level of vacancies and another small uptick in the pace of average earnings growth paint a positive picture for occupier demand. But with London punching above its weight... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth to trend higher The job opening and labour turnover report and NFIB survey released this week suggest that labour market conditions continue to tighten and point to wage pressures rising further this year. We still... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The unexpected 1,100 decline in employment in April is probably nothing to worry about given the strength of the gains in recent months and that unseasonably bad weather last month may have played a... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) The Economy Watchers Survey was little changed in April and points to a further slowdown in consumer spending and sluggish industrial activity. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The surge in base pay in March underlines that the tight labour market is now generating noticeable cost pressures. However, it will still take a few more years before wage growth is strong enough to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Another first-quarter blip The weakness in advanced economies early this year, which was largely driven by softer household spending, looks like a temporary setback rather than anything more ominous. Admittedly, economic growth... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) With the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of only 3.9% in April, the Fed is still going to push ahead and raise rates again in June, even though average hourly earnings growth remained muted. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
