Canada Economics Weekly Mixed employment survey makes Bank’s job harder The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement will take the spotlight next week. Despite June’s Labour Force Survey being something of a mixed bag, the subsequent rise in the Canadian dollar suggests that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) & International Trade (May) Although the unemployment rate rose and wage growth slowed in June, the construction-driven 32,000 increase in employment will soothe concerns about the housing market. Even with exports falling in... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 213,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which followed an even stronger 244,000 rise in May, provides further evidence that uncertainty over trade policy isn’t yet having a major impact on the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (May) The acceleration in base pay in May is another sign that the tight labour market is boosting cost pressures. But we think that wages would still have to rise much faster to generate 2% inflation. 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s unemployment data revealed that the steady recovery in the euro-zone labour market had continued despite signs of a slowdown in the wider economy. But with wage growth remaining subdued, the ECB... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the construction sector in trouble? June’s employment figures, due for release next Friday, will confirm whether the recent signs of weakness in construction were just a temporary blip, possibly weather-related, or something more... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Teflon Abe is back, labour market tightening rapidly Japan has looked to be at full employment for some time but the latest releases have called that assumption into question and raised the possibility that wage growth – and the Bank of Japan’s hopes of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set to slow We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment slowed to 180,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 3.8%, but we suspect that annual wage growth rose further, a trend that... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway labour data bolster case for September rate hike Norway’s labour market recovery should continue to push up wage growth over the coming years. But with wage expectations still quite low, wage growth will probably rise only slowly, so the Norges Bank... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second quarter rebound led by consumption After a disappointing first quarter, our calculations suggest that annualised GDP growth will rebound to more than 4% in the second quarter, driven by a big turnaround in consumption growth. Even... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
