US Economics Focus Renewed boom in productivity remains elusive Following a decade when productivity growth averaged barely 1% per year, we anticipate a modest acceleration to 1.5% over the next few years, principally because the low unemployment rate, rising... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls boosted by unwinding of weather distortion The strength of most labour market indicators suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in February. That should have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate held steady in January and the number of unemployed people only edged down, surveys suggest that the labour market recovery should regain momentum. But the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A marked divergence in the fortunes of businesses While rising profits and confidence are boosting sentiment amongst Australian businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new government has continued to weigh on business confidence... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has the natural rate of unemployment fallen? The unemployment rate may need to fall from 5.5% currently to around 4.0% before wage growth rises significantly. This is partly due to the existing excess capacity not captured by the unemployment... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) & Public Finances (Jan.) Although unemployment rose in December, employment continued to grow strongly and the surveys suggest that this pace of growth will be sustained in the coming months. Meanwhile, government borrowing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Dec.) Job creation failed to meet economist’s expectations in December. Combined with a rise in the participation rate, that contributed to the first increase in the unemployment rate since August 2016. Yet... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While the manufacturing PMI weakened in February it remains near the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and consistent with strong gains in industrial output. Meanwhile, the survey... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The hike in Ontario’s minimum wage to $14.00 an hour on January 1st, from $11.60, had a devastating impact, with 59,300 part-time jobs lost in the first month alone, equivalent to 4.3% of part-time... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The slump in the Economy Watchers Survey in January probably reflects cold winter weather and we wouldn’t read too much into it. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The slowdown in wage growth in December was driven by bonus payments and overtime pay whereas regular pay rebounded. The big picture is that wage growth remains sluggish. 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
