Canada Economics Weekly Labour data point to slower consumption growth The incoming labour market data provide further evidence of a potential household-led slowdown in economic growth this quarter. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada won’t risk increasing... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Blockbuster first quarter for employment We estimate that payroll employment expanded by 250,000 in March, as the disruption from the recent flu epidemic faded. That should push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, an 18-year low. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Might the labour market be looser than it appears? There is a plausible argument that widespread “underemployment” of employees who would like to work longer hours means that labour market conditions in Japan are not as tight as the historically-low... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Record run of job growth won’t be sustained Following a surprisingly strong 2017, the Australian labour market has started 2018 on a firm footing and business surveys suggest that employment growth will continue to climb in the coming months... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) Australia does not have a problem creating jobs, as employment continued to grow at its fastest rate in a decade in February. But there is still a lot of slack in the market that will need to be used... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.) January’s labour market figures provided clearer signs of a revival in earnings growth, suggesting that it won’t be long before we start to see sustained rises in real pay. Meanwhile, government... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising prime-age participation a new structural trend The surge in job growth in February, which was fuelled by a rise in new entrants to the labour force, supports the doves’ view that there is still hidden slack in the labour market. But the story isn... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish wage growth to prevent BoJ from tightening We wouldn’t read too much into the early results of this year’s spring wage negotiations, which showed that the large carmakers and electronic firms lifted base pay by less than in 2014 and 2015. But... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages won’t prompt surge in wage growth Labour shortages are a growing problem in parts of the euro-zone and are likely to persist due to mismatches of skills and barriers to relocation. But given the degree of labour market slack in the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The small 15,400 rebound in employment in February, following the much larger drop the month before, was underwhelming and suggests that the underlying trend in hiring has softened, echoing the recent... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The massive 313,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February, the biggest in 18 months, together with the 54,000 upward revision to gains in the preceding two months, illustrates that the economy is... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jan.) The slowdown in base pay in January underlines that the Bank of Japan won’t be able to tighten monetary policy anytime soon. Meanwhile, the jump in household spending in January is good news but we... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
