Asia Economics Weekly Jokowi to stand again, tightening cycle to lose steam Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) confirmed earlier this week that he will be seeking a second term as president, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2014 election, which saw him narrowly edge past... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Underlying wage pressures still building The June Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey provided more evidence that labour market conditions are tightening, which will keep wage growth on a steady upward trend. With few signs of a sustained... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Will higher female participation boost the economy? Only one-quarter of Indian women of working age are in paid employment. If participation in the workforce could increase to the rates of other Asian countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines by... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) The surge in wage growth in June was mostly driven by stronger bonus payments whereas base pay didn’t pick up any further. Meanwhile, the rise in household spending in June adds to the evidence that... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth unlikely to last The world economy has rebounded after a sluggish first quarter, with global growth rising to around 4% annualised in Q2. But we doubt that this will last long because it has largely resulted from a... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC: Another hike on the cards in November The new forecasts accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was raised by 25bp – suggest that another hike is likely in November. In 2019, we think that interest rates... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) Although the labour market remains fairly healthy and employment is still within the RBNZ’s measures of the “maximum sustainable level”, the rise in the unemployment rate in the second quarter coupled... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) Even though job growth slowed in June, the unemployment rate remained very low. Meanwhile, industrial production rebounded last quarter which suggests that the economy returned to growth. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep the Fed hiking We anticipate a 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in July, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings posting a 0.3% m/m increase. Despite objections from... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
