US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to seal deal for September rate hike We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment rebounded to 180,000 in August. Along with signs that diminishing slack is starting to push wage growth gradually higher, that would seal the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The surprise decline in employment July isn’t a big concern as other evidence suggests the economy has not stalled. But even if the labour market were to shift back into top gear in the coming months... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) Today’s labour market data showed some moderation in employment growth. However, with job creation mostly in full-time positions and real wage growth still positive, the details do not point to a... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) Today’s labour market figures showed that the recent surge in employment has petered out and that real wage growth remains subdued, casting doubt over the likely strength of any recovery in consumer... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although the 54,000 rise in employment in July blew the consensus out of the water, it was driven largely by temporary jobs, and average earnings growth dropped sharply. Despite the positive headline... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
