US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peso plunges, Korea’s labour market woes continue A widening trade deficit in the Philippines has put renewed downward pressure on the peso over the past week, creating a further headache for the central bank. Meanwhile, in Korea, the recent weakness... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Goods Trade (Jul.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q2 adds to signs that inflationary pressures in the region are building. This will encourage the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy. But... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Conditions for higher wages (slowly) falling into place This week the Australian economy took one more step towards meeting the conditions that would require higher interest rates, but it may be another 12-18 months at the least before the RBA has enough... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The labour market is edging closer to the conditions that are necessary to trigger faster wage growth, but it may be another couple of years yet before it gets there. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that the recent acceleration in wage growth has further to run. 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) Pay growth ended its recent soft patch in emphatic style in July, with underlying pay growth reaching its joint-highest pace since 2008. This suggests that competition for workers is finally starting... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak labour market to drag on Korea’s economy Korea’s labour market has deteriorated significantly in recent months, and August data due tomorrow are likely to show that conditions remain weak. The government unveiled plans for a sharp rise in... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Although August’s sharp drop in employment simply reversed July’s gain, the concentration of losses in high-wage service jobs and construction is concerning. Coupled with a further slowdown in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 201,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August all-but guarantees that the Fed will raise interest rates later this month, particularly as wage growth reached a nine-year high. 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Tokyo CPI (Aug.) The third consecutive decline in industrial production in July suggests that growth will slow in Q3. Meanwhile, the tight labour market is starting to boost price pressures. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
