US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes may mask the strength of payrolls We estimate that non-farm payroll gains rebounded to 185,000 in October, but this may be skewed by the uncertain impacts of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. The bigger picture is that... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Full employment has not been achieved Even though the unemployment rate has fallen to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 5.0% estimate of the natural rate, the RBA will still want to see signs of much faster wage growth before it hikes... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) Whether or not the decline in the unemployment rate in September to the RBA’s estimate of the natural rate of 5.0% prompts the Bank to raise interest rates sooner depends on what happens to wage... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) We think that the drop in employment in the three months to August is more likely to be a blip rather than the beginning of a sustained decline in jobs growth. What’s more, pay growth continued to... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Phillips Curve back from the dead? After years of falling unemployment, wage growth has finally been picking up in the major advanced economies this year. However, the forces that have kept a lid on pay growth over the past decade are... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Good times continue Domestic demand will pick up speed ahead of next year’s sales tax hike, extending one of Japan’s strongest runs of growth since the 1980s, and price pressures will strengthen. But weaker domestic... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households remain gloomy, yen to strengthen again Japan’s labour market is as strong as most of today’s workers will ever have known, which makes the persistent weakness of consumption all the more puzzling. Spending remains flat according to data... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Aug.) The strongest rise in regular earnings since 1997 should be followed by even stronger gains in coming months as the labour market tightens further. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
