Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) Even though job growth slowed in June, the unemployment rate remained very low. Meanwhile, industrial production rebounded last quarter which suggests that the economy returned to growth. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin wavers on pension reform, Turkish sanctions Signs this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin now opposes a planned rise in the retirement age suggest that the one significant policy reform announced in the country in the past three years... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep the Fed hiking We anticipate a 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in July, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings posting a 0.3% m/m increase. Despite objections from... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jul.) & Unemploy’t (Jun.) The Swedish economy continues to perform well. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s minimum wage policy backfiring The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market is improving quicker than the RBA expected, but it is probably the case that the unemployment rate would have to fall below 5.0%, other measures of spare capacity would have to... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The final set of labour market figures before the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) August meeting will not deter the Committee from pressing ahead and raising interest rates. 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
