Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Although August’s sharp drop in employment simply reversed July’s gain, the concentration of losses in high-wage service jobs and construction is concerning. Coupled with a further slowdown in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 201,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August all-but guarantees that the Fed will raise interest rates later this month, particularly as wage growth reached a nine-year high. 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Tokyo CPI (Aug.) The third consecutive decline in industrial production in July suggests that growth will slow in Q3. Meanwhile, the tight labour market is starting to boost price pressures. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to seal deal for September rate hike We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment rebounded to 180,000 in August. Along with signs that diminishing slack is starting to push wage growth gradually higher, that would seal the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The surprise decline in employment July isn’t a big concern as other evidence suggests the economy has not stalled. But even if the labour market were to shift back into top gear in the coming months... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) Today’s labour market data showed some moderation in employment growth. However, with job creation mostly in full-time positions and real wage growth still positive, the details do not point to a... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
