US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The far bigger than expected 312,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in December would seem to make a mockery of market fears of an impending recession. Admittedly, employment is a coincident indicator... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The 9,000 increase in employment in December was better than expected and, encouragingly, suggests that November’s bumper 94,000 gain was more than just a statistical quirk. But for anyone who still... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains to bounce back Our model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.6%. Base effects mean that annual wage growth probably declined to 2.9%. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The solid rise in employment in November will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence inits optimistic forecasts following the disappointing Q3 GDP data. But labour market slack is... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The latest labour market figures suggest that a recovery in real pay growth is taking root. This supports our view that GDP growth will rebound next year if a “no deal” Brexit is avoided. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) The improvement in job creation in October was encouraging, but with the labour market near full capacity, employment growth and therefore occupier demand are still expected to moderate. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The puzzle of low wage growth One explanation for the persistent weakness of wage growth in Japan, despite the tightness of the labour market, is that employment growth has been skewed towards positions with low hours and low pay... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The 94,000 surge in employment was nine times stronger than the consensus forecast, but the gains were led partly by Alberta where the outlook has recently deteriorated markedly. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the current heightened nervousness, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The continued strength in base pay casts doubt on the Bank of Japan’s view that sampling distortions have overstated wage growth in recent months. And if the unemployment rate falls towards 2.0% over... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
