Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rise in employment combined with a stable unemployment rate should give the RBA some confidence in its optimistic forecasts, but we think the labour market will worsen again soon. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q4) Broadly unchanged wage growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 suggests that the unemployment rate remains above the natural rate. We think the unemployment rate may actually rise this year meaning wage... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Unemployment a structural obstacle, not cyclical indicator We wouldn’t read too much into the recent decline in South African unemployment; the measure tells us little about the country’s economic cycle. While many factors contribute to high levels of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) While reassuring, the large rise in employment in Q4 probably marks a peak in employment growth given the deterioration in surveys of hiring in January. And pay growth plateaued. Nonetheless, we think... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Labour Market (Jan.) January data suggest that a sharp minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year weighed on hiring, and is likely to depress job creation throughout 2019. The poor health of the labour market is set... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak business sentiment another drag on investment The relatively small bounce-back in business conditions in January suggests that the collapse in December was more than a blip. The recent deterioration in sentiment is likely to mean that business... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly 20 years of ZIRP This week’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations got underway against an inauspicious backdrop, with corrected official data showing that real wages didn’t rise at all last year. Next week, Japan’s zero... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January’s outsized 67,000 jump in employment will temper fears that the recent economic weakness is worsening. But with annual earnings growth unchanged at 2%, there are still no signs of rising... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Slowdown will keep rates on hold until 2021 The Bank will be weighing up the impact of a tighter labour market but weaker GDP growth when it leaves interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday. It’s unlikely that any of the recent data will cause the... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The bounce in the unemployment rate in Q4 was expected and the RBNZ has previously stated that this level of slack in the labour market is consistent with employment around its maximum sustainable... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
