UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) The improvement in job creation in October was encouraging, but with the labour market near full capacity, employment growth and therefore occupier demand are still expected to moderate. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The puzzle of low wage growth One explanation for the persistent weakness of wage growth in Japan, despite the tightness of the labour market, is that employment growth has been skewed towards positions with low hours and low pay... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The 94,000 surge in employment was nine times stronger than the consensus forecast, but the gains were led partly by Alberta where the outlook has recently deteriorated markedly. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the current heightened nervousness, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The continued strength in base pay casts doubt on the Bank of Japan’s view that sampling distortions have overstated wage growth in recent months. And if the unemployment rate falls towards 2.0% over... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook Long-term Global Economic Outlook We think that world GDP growth will average around 3.0% over the next twenty years, compared to around 3.5% over the past two decades. Productivity growth is likely to rebound in advanced economies... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Tokyo CPI (Nov.) The surge in industrial production in October is a strong sign that the economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That suggests that October’s weakening in the labour market data won’t be... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment strength supports December rate hike We anticipate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 190,000 in November, following last month’s post-hurricane surge. Hourly earnings growth should hit a near-decade high of 3.2%, clearing the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
