Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The pick-up in wage growth in November has probably further to run as the unemployment rate declines ahead of the sales tax hike. But wages may not rise fast enough to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Borrowing costs an increasing drag on investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain exceptionally tight, although higher interest rates are restraining business investment. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Minimum wage hike to weigh on growth A further sharp rise in the minimum wage in Korea at the start of this month is likely to drag heavily on the labour market again this year, further holding back employment growth and household... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The far bigger than expected 312,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in December would seem to make a mockery of market fears of an impending recession. Admittedly, employment is a coincident indicator... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The 9,000 increase in employment in December was better than expected and, encouragingly, suggests that November’s bumper 94,000 gain was more than just a statistical quirk. But for anyone who still... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains to bounce back Our model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.6%. Base effects mean that annual wage growth probably declined to 2.9%. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The solid rise in employment in November will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence inits optimistic forecasts following the disappointing Q3 GDP data. But labour market slack is... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption boosted by plunging gasoline prices The boost to purchasing power from the recent plunge in gasoline prices has already fed through to stronger real consumption growth. Even assuming a more modest rise in December, control group retail... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) The Q4 Tankan survey was better than most had anticipated and adds to the evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, firms are reporting mounting difficulties finding staff which... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The latest labour market figures suggest that a recovery in real pay growth is taking root. This supports our view that GDP growth will rebound next year if a “no deal” Brexit is avoided. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
