Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to growing labour market slack The April JOLTS data provided further evidence of normalisation, with job openings falling further, layoffs still at historically low levels and the leading indicators all pointing to wage growth... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why is wage growth in Korea so weak? The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the... 4th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Window for policy tightening is closing A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to... 4th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower education costs could boost fertility rate While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24) May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the latest wage data The wage growth data published this week were not good for the inflation outlook, but they weren’t as bad as they first appeared. Meanwhile, the latest news on economic activity has been encouraging... 24th May 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Migration is preventing the supply of labour from shrinking Putting the politics aside, the high number of migrants coming to the UK for work is the main reason why the number of people willing and able to work isn’t shrinking. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Healthcare hiring & spending spree has further to run The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
