Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Slowdown will keep rates on hold until 2021 The Bank will be weighing up the impact of a tighter labour market but weaker GDP growth when it leaves interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday. It’s unlikely that any of the recent data will cause the... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The bounce in the unemployment rate in Q4 was expected and the RBNZ has previously stated that this level of slack in the labour market is consistent with employment around its maximum sustainable... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada too optimistic on wage growth With wages boosted last year by minimum wage hikes and the labour market now facing several headwinds, we doubt that a meaningful pick-up in wage growth is on the cards for 2019. 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 304,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January was partly offset by a downward revision to the December gain, but still illustrates that economic growth remains solid and that the government... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The sharp fall in December’s labour force and employment followed unusually strong gains in previous months and should not be a cause for concern. However, the unemployment rate may be close to a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising prime-age participation not all good news The increase in participation of those aged 25-54 is partly due to a structural decline in disability rates, but the more recent drop in fertility rates also appears to be playing a key role. That... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exports slump as tech sector cools A shocking set of export figures this week may have been worsened by specific troubles in the tech sector. But a deterioration in the global environment is likely to be an increasing headwind for the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Parliament grabbing the wheel steers sterling higher While the vote in Parliament next Tuesday might not break the Brexit deadlock, it could give us a better steer on where the UK is headed. After all, MPs will vote on a series of amendments which could... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls will be unaffected by shutdown We expect a solid 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January which, because a bill has already been passed guaranteeing workers back pay when the government reopens, will be largely unaffected by... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) The decent rise in employment in December shows that the housing downturn isn’t having a major impact on the labour market yet. But we expect domestic demand to slow sharply this year so jobs growth... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
