RBA Watch Shift in RBA’s stance increases chances of rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5th March. While the Bank should reiterate its view that inflationary... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well placed to step up spending While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2%... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rise in employment combined with a stable unemployment rate should give the RBA some confidence in its optimistic forecasts, but we think the labour market will worsen again soon. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q4) Broadly unchanged wage growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 suggests that the unemployment rate remains above the natural rate. We think the unemployment rate may actually rise this year meaning wage... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Unemployment a structural obstacle, not cyclical indicator We wouldn’t read too much into the recent decline in South African unemployment; the measure tells us little about the country’s economic cycle. While many factors contribute to high levels of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) While reassuring, the large rise in employment in Q4 probably marks a peak in employment growth given the deterioration in surveys of hiring in January. And pay growth plateaued. Nonetheless, we think... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Labour Market (Jan.) January data suggest that a sharp minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year weighed on hiring, and is likely to depress job creation throughout 2019. The poor health of the labour market is set... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak business sentiment another drag on investment The relatively small bounce-back in business conditions in January suggests that the collapse in December was more than a blip. The recent deterioration in sentiment is likely to mean that business... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly 20 years of ZIRP This week’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations got underway against an inauspicious backdrop, with corrected official data showing that real wages didn’t rise at all last year. Next week, Japan’s zero... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January’s outsized 67,000 jump in employment will temper fears that the recent economic weakness is worsening. But with annual earnings growth unchanged at 2%, there are still no signs of rising... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
