Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Losing confidence The continued decline in business confidence in February suggests that the falls in business investment will persist into 2019. And the deterioration in consumer confidence may motivate households to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market slack growing beneath the surface Recent declines in hours worked suggest that, despite decent gains in employment, slack is building in the labour market. That, in turn, is likely to limit any acceleration in wage growth. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank rows back from further rate hikes The Bank of Canada admitted this week that it had been caught out by the broad-based nature of the recent economic slowdown. But its forecasts continue to envisage a strong rebound in growth, which we... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Some positives beneath the gloomy headlines Attention on Friday was inevitably captured by the terrible February payrolls number but, looking back at developments this week, there was also a surprising number of positives. 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The slump in payroll employment growth in February reinforces the message from the incoming activity data that economic growth is slowing below its 2% potential pace in the first quarter. That makes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The further rise in employment in February will help to soothe fears that Canada’s economy slowed even further at the start of the year. While pay growth was also stronger than expected, the big drop... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s optimism won’t last long The RBA remained fairly confident when it left rates on hold today at 1.50% but we expect that as the data deteriorate this year the Bank will take a more dovish view. And before the end of the year... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t ignore decent pay growth forever One reason why we think the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates further than most forecasters expect – assuming a Brexit resolution is reached – is decent pay growth. We think it will... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Robust payrolls remain a bright spot We anticipate a robust 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, while a post-shutdown rebound in household employment will cause the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.9%. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
