US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth shifting down the gears We expect payroll growth to rebound to 150,000 in March, from 20,000 the month before, but that would still imply employment gains are now beginning to trend lower. 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates faster and more The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Spotlight on female employment The extremely low share of women in India’s formal workforce has become a talking point in the election campaign. It has far-reaching ramifications, including by keeping the economy much smaller than... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The fall in the unemployment rate to an eight-year low in February will give the Reserve Bank of Australia renewed confidence in its forecast that the labour market will continue to tighten. By... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Explaining weak investment and strong employment The current divergence between weak business investment growth and strong employment growth won’t last as it’s largely due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If there’s a no deal Brexit, both will... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) There was no sign in the labour market data of Brexit concerns at the start of the year as the data beat expectations in every regard. And solid wage growth and employment alongside weak productivity... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth likely to stop rising this year Euro-zone labour cost growth edged down in Q4 and, in contrast to the ECB, we don’t expect it to start rising again this year. This suggests that upward pressure on core inflation will remain muted. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
