India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour markets unlikely to loosen significantly Compared to previous slowdowns, the recent resilience of labour markets in advanced economies hasn’t been that unusual. While we expect subdued economic growth to take the shine off the performance of... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Childcare boost & trade negotiations The introduction of free childcare for children aged three to five and for those below three years of age from low-income families should encourage even more women to join the workforce. Improved... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households vulnerable despite robust labour market Despite the strength of the labour market, the precarious condition of households’ finances suggests that consumer spending growth will continue to disappoint. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys add to evidence of labour market slowdown The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that investment growth is set to slow and provide further evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 196,000 gain in non-farm payrolls March will be greeted with a sigh of relief after the disappointing 33,000 increase in February, but employment growth is nevertheless on a downward trend – with... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The Bank of Canada won’t worry too much about March’s small drop in employment following previous strong gains and will be more encouraged by the fact that wage growth rose to seven-month high... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) The recent slump in wage growth is hard to square with the tightness of the labour market. That said, we think that the unemployment rate will start to rise again soon. That means wage growth is... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The Q1 Tankan revealed a sharp deterioration in activity at the start of the year. That suggests that the easing in capacity and staff shortages that started in manufacturing should soon spread to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Feb.) February’s activity data don’t alter our view that GDP contracted in the first quarter and won’t rise at all this year. And while the labour market remains exceptionally tight, the weakness in... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth shifting down the gears We expect payroll growth to rebound to 150,000 in March, from 20,000 the month before, but that would still imply employment gains are now beginning to trend lower. 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
