Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April was much better than we had expected and kept the six-month trend above 200,000. Some of the details were less positive, with hours worked falling back... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Mar.) March’s activity data were weak and suggests that the contraction in Q1 GDP will be sharper than what we initially expected. And although the jump in the unemployment rate in March merely reversed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Manufacturing slump weighing on payroll growth Our model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 165,000 in April, with the survey-based hiring indicators and the recent contraction in temporary help employment both... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Services slipping as manufacturing stabilises There are tentative signs that US and global manufacturing may be stabilising, but the latest surveys suggest that activity in the domestic-focused services sector is weakening. 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Spending boost from sales tax hike to remain muted Private consumption surged ahead of the last two sales tax hikes as households brought forward spending but collapsed as soon as the tax had been raised. The data thus far suggest that consumers have... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Low level of jobless claims too good to be true We are sceptical that the decline in initial jobless claims to a 50-year low is providing a reliable guide to current labour market conditions. In recent years, a number of states have made it more... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) The labour market posted another decent month in February. However, we suspect that February could mark the peak for employment growth as the survey evidence turned down sharply in recent months. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
