India Economics Weekly Acharya steps down, labour reform bills tabled Dr Viral Acharya, who stepped down from the MPC this week, was one of the most hawkish members of the committee. As such, his departure boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it... 26th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions beginning to sour Our model points to a renewed slowdown in payroll employment growth in July to just 145,000, from 224,000. As the economy slows further, we expect a more marked downturn in employment growth later... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in pay hikes that aren’t any stronger than those agreed upon a year ago. That’s rather disappointing given how tight the labour market is. Meanwhile... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) We think the slowdown in employment growth has further to run and suspect that the deterioration in the labour market will cause the unemployment rate to rise before the year is out. 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The further slowdown in employment growth in May looks set to continue over the rest of this year as firms take a breath after the hiring spree in the first quarter. However, the labour market should... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Wages kept falling in May even though the labour market remained very tight. That reflects sampling changes which have lowered the aggregate wage level. As those distortions start to fade, wage growth... 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 224,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was much stronger than the consensus estimate of 160,000 and would seem to make a mockery of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June) The 2,200 decline in employment in June is not a concern given that the economy created an average of 50,000 jobs per month over the first five months of this year. That torrid pace was never... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Labour markets succumbing to the gloom The past month has brought evidence of a continued slowdown in global growth and this weakness now seems to be spreading to labour markets. While advanced economy employment growth held up very well... 5th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will probably cut rates to 0.5% While the RBA lowered the cash rate to 1.0% at today’s meeting, it signalled that it won’t ease policy any further for now. However, we think that the Bank remains too optimistic about the outlook for... 2nd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) While the labour market remains tight, the drop in the job-to-applicant ratio is an early sign that it will slacken over coming months. Meanwhile, the jump in industrial production and capital goods... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
